UFC on Fox 15 Betting Tips

UFC on Fox 15 Main Card Bets
Focusing on finding value for UFC on Fox 15, I think most of it lies within the prelims. This is a great card from an entertainment standpoint and there are intriguing matchups, but that also lends to some fights that are tough to cap. On the main card, I’m running into that issue with Machida vs. Rockhold. I think Rockhold is better on the ground than Machida, comparable standing, and likely stronger in the clinch and wrestling. Despite that, Machida’s unorthodox style can possibly give Rockhold troubles and I do not like how Rockhold keeps his hands down. There are enough question marks here for me to stay away, but I do feel fairly comfortable this fight hits the later rounds.

Camozzi vs. Jacare is obviously a pass with the steep odds, and that leaves us with Swanson/Holloway and Van Zant/Herrig. Swanson vs. Holloway screams a close match to me. I think both are fairly comparable standing, but Swanson probably has the edge on the ground. I think this fight will end up staying on the feet most of the time and aggressiveness, durability, and cardio will become a factor. I’m sitting back and waiting for either to hit around +150, and that’s the play. With Van Zant vs. Herrig, I’m going to take a leap of faith on Van Zant. In her debut, she showed an extremely high work rate. In a fight that is very likely to go to decision, that’s a huge factor. Sure, she didn’t look great technically, but athleticism and aggressiveness still goes a long way in women’s MMA. This is one of those weird fights where I actually think Herrig is just a little better technically in every aspect, but all of that is trumped out by athletic ability, volume, and aggressiveness. I like Van Zant here up to around -175, but as mentioned, it’s a leap of faith so betting size should be small.

UFC on Fox 15 – Televised Prelims
I feel the televised prelims for this card bring the best bet for the card in Jim Miller vs. Beneil Dariush. In a way, this fight reminds me of when Miller fought Oliveira or when Miller fought Medeiros. Jim Miller hasn’t looked like a top contender for a bit since he has lost his step ups in competition, but Miller has never been a stepping stone for a prospect. He stepped up to the plate against Oliveira as well as Medeiros. I think we are going to see that again over the weekend as Dariush does not hold clear advantages anywhere. It can definitely be argued that Dariush is the better overall grappler, but that remains to be seen for MMA. Furthermore, Miller should hold the advantage standing. What I really think will set Miller over the edge is the hometown support and his aggressiveness. We saw aggressiveness was Dariush’s downfall against Ramsey Nijem. I actually cap Miller as the favorite here and think + odds are great.

OSP vs. Cummins is somewhat difficult to cap. I can see the logic in favoring Cummins since people think he’ll replicate Bader’s gameplan, but I think people are selling Bader a bit short. Bader is also a threat standing, and Cummins does not present this. I think OSP’s standup, athleticism, experience, and overall ability are enough to present challenges to Cummins who seems to be fairly one dimensional and easy to gameplan for. OSP at + odds is the play.

I feel pretty similar on Villante vs. Anderson and Sterling vs. Mizugaki. Both of these fights are dog or pass. Villante can present problems to the rather green Anderson and Mizugaki is not a walk through for fighters who are not top tier. I think Anderson and Sterling both have a lot of potential, but these fights have a chance to be closer than they appear. I’m leaning towards passing on Mizugaki since Sterling will be more active and Mizugaki will likely be on the defense a lot, but Villante is worth a small play if he gets up near +300.

UFC on Fox 15 – Fight Pass
There are only two plays that I like here, and it’s the Under 2.5 at +170 on Means/Sullivan and the inside the distance line on Hettes/Brandao. I think Means and Sullivan will get in quite a few exchanges, and Sullivan is likely to fall. On the flip side, I would not count out Means going down either. I’m not sure why most people think this will go to decision. Neither fighter goes to decision often and stylistically I don’t see this being a snoozer. With Hettes/Brandao, it’s another one that I have a hard time seeing going to decision. Brandao can take Hettes’s head off standing, and I think Hettes can take advantage of Brandao if he gasses. I know Brandao has gone a more conservative route before to save energy, but that will be tough against a guy attacking from bottom in Hettes. As far as Gordon/Dempsey goes, I’ll have to pass.

 

UFN 63 Prelims Betting Tips

Liz Carmouche vs. Lauren Murphy
This is another fight that I’m having a bit of trouble capping. I’ve mentioned before that physical skills alone can get you through a lot in the women’s division. Athleticism plus strength can excel over a more skilled opponent who is inferior in those attributes. I believe Carmouche is one of those fighters who uses her strength to get the win often. Against a fighter like Murphy, I feel this is most likely what will happen. I expect a lot of clinching and tie ups along the cage, and Carmouche will likely be the one slightly winning those battles. I think this fight will be extremely close, and given the close odds, it’s probably a pass.Alexander Yakovlev vs Gray Maynard
I think the public is way off on this fight. It’s dangerous to start banking on a fighter losing simply due to his chin without looking at the matchup. I see a lot of the justifications for plays on Yakovlev saying it’s a pure fade on Maynard and that Maynard’s chin is shot. Let’s look at two aspects to counter those points: Who Maynard has lost to and Yakovlev’s ability for the KO. None of Maynard’s losses are to poor competition. Edgar is a stud and all other losses are to people who can finish and excel striking. Contrast that to Yakovlev who has an extremely low (T)KO percentage. In fact, Yakovlev has been to decision in his last seven fights. Looking at it that way, you cannot depend on Yakovlev to crack Maynard’s chin.

Now if we assume Yakovlev can’t get the KO, where does he win here? He has depended often on his takedowns and getting on top for decisions. One area where people cannot say Gray has looked bad is his takedown defense. Clay had a lot of trouble there and Edgar was not able to easily get Gray down even with his impeccable timing. Offensively, Gray’s wrestling hasn’t looked as dominant as it used to, but keep in mind he was going against fighters with a clear edge standing looking to sprawl. With Yakovlev, I don’t think he’ll have an advantage standing which means he’ll likely be focused on the striking. Of course he’ll be worried about takedowns too, but it’s a lot different when you are focusing on two areas.

To put it simply, I don’t see where Yakovlev excels in one area more than Gray. I cap Gray here closer to -200, and it would probably be much higher if it wasn’t for his recent (T)KOs. Although there is a lot of value here, I do have some hesitations on where Maynard’s head is at. I wouldn’t go as large as normal here even with all of this value, but Gray is a must play.

Shamil Abdurahimov vs Timothy Johnson
This one is a weird one to try to cap and I am failing at it, but I will say the only lean that I feel fairly good on is that it ends inside the distance. This isn’t exactly a bold claim seeing as how it’s sitting at moderate favorite odds, but it is one to consider. Shamil Abdurahimov isn’t immune to going to decisions, but Johnson has never even seen the third round. It’s tough for me to imagine Johnson completely changes his sink or swim style. I think this one won’t touch the third round, but inside the distance is safer if you must make a play on this fight.Justin Jones vs Ron Stallings
This fight is making me feel borderline bipolar. I like both of these fighters and I think they both can fit in the UFC. I also think this makes for an interesting and cool matchup. It’s depressing though since it’s one of the first fights and it may likely be a loser leaves town fight. Neither had favorable matchups in their debut. Stallings had to go against Uriah Hall. Jones had to to up in weight to face Anderson. Despite the disadvantages, I don’t think either looked that bad. Jones showed how game he is and Stallings showed a tremendous ability to not go down despite getting cracked hard. I find this fight to be fairly even, but I think Jones has to take a slight edge when it comes to striking. He seems to also be the quicker fighter.

I look for this fight to be entertaining and competitive, but Jones has to get the slight edge here. Stallings has good outings such as bringing Adlan Amagov to split decision or destroying UFC vet Massenzio, however, he also has lost to guys like Tim Williams. Jones seems just a little more promising here, and I probably cap him closer to -150. There isn’t a lot of value, but Jones would be the play.

UFN 63 Main Card Betting Tips

Al Iaquinta vs Jorge Masvidal

Unfortunately, this one is really hard for me to cap. My initial lean is Masvidal here. Masvidal has very underrated striking and he’s shown his all around game is there. We’ve seen him go back to his wrestling when necessary, but his bread and butter will always be his striking. The problem I have is that Masvidal has been making fights a bit too close for comfort. He’s rarely getting finishes, so betting on him is a sweat.As of right now, there isn’t a single play that really jumps out at me. I do think this fight is very likely to go to decision, so if forced to make a play, it would be the over 2.5 round. If Masvidal dips to + odds somehow, he would be the play.

Michael Chiesa vs. Mitch Clarke

I really liked the opening line on the under 2.5, and I still like it quite a bit at +115. Since 2011, Chiesa has gone over 2.5 rounds only once. Chiesa’s style makes it very clear why this happens. He is insanely aggressive and always going after the finish. He is one of those fighters that has really grown on me throughout his UFC tenure. I find it odd with Chiesa so favored to win that the under 2.5 is at + odds. It’s clear Chiesa’s best route to victory is always the finish, and this will be no exception. I’d pass on any other play is this is clearly the best option.

Juliana Pena vs. Milana Dudieva

I have to admit, this fight is really hard for me to cap and I’m getting gunshy at capping women’s MMA. In particular, I think it’s really hard to cap some of the fighters who came off of The Ultimate Fighter. I like the way Pena has looked with her aggression and tenacity, but as you can see in her record, she has suffered some losses not too far back. Dudieva is even harder for me to cap at this stage. I think this fight is a pass and one to watch more for future capping purposes, but my initial lean would be the inside the distance line at + odds. Both fighters like to go after the finish.

Clay Guida vs. Robbie Peralta

I really like Guida in this fight. Peralta has not faced anyone with a similar style to Guida yet, and I think he’ll have a hard time handling the wrestling. Peralta has got by being very tough and going after his opponents standing. He earns the respect from his opponents who get stuck fighting him from the outside and striking with him. Guida is not the type of fighter he will be stuck on the outside. He will be moving in and out and constantly going for takedowns. I also feel Guida can get some significant offense going as his top game will be a lot better than Peralta’s bottom game.If you look back at Guida’s record, this is the easiest fight he’s had in years. He’s had an extremely tough schedule, and this will be the type of matchup that can make him a fan favorite again. Often Guida is going up against guys who are probably more skilled than him in more areas, but not here. I like Guida here up to around -325 as I give Peralta only a puncher’s chance.

Dustin Poirier vs Carlos Diego Ferreira

I had to think on this fight for a bit, and the more that I thought about it, the more advantages I see Poirier having. I’m always hesitant to give Poirier a striking edge over fighters since I feel he has pretty poor striking defense and he can also be wobbled easily. I don’t think this will be much of a factor here as Ferreira has never shown himself to be that great of a striker and he can get wild himself. Besides striking, I think Poirier holds a clear edge in aggressiveness, volume, and going for the finish. Poirier does not go down easy and he’s always looking to be the one winning the round. Lastly, I think Poiriers cardio will shine since he’ll be putting a fast pace on Ferreira. I do think Ferreira is the better all around grappler, but all of these other factors end up outweighing that advantage by a bit.

By no means do I think Poirier should be a huge favorite, but I do think he’s at -200 above. Ferreira’s most likely way to win would be with a really solid and disciplined grappling gameplan. Besides that, he obviously has the chance to catch Poirier who can get into firefights and exchanges. Regardless, I see Poirier really taking over in the later rounds and also having a better chance at putting Ferreira away.

UFN 63: Chad Mendes vs Ricardo Lamas Betting Tips

Ultimate Fight Night 63 Betting Preview
Ultimate Fight Night 63 is one of those under the radar events that I really like from a betting perspective as well as an entertainment perspective. The main event is intriguing, and you also have several fights throughout the card that should be entertaining and have value. It also looks like a good mix of underdog and favorite bets.

Chad Mendes vs. Ricardo Lamas
I’ve always said one thing about the featherweight division and I’ll stick by it: I don’t favor anyone to beat Mendes besides Aldo. Despite that statement, I have to say that I’m surprised by the odds on this one. Ricardo Lamas is no joke. He has shown that he’s dangerous everywhere, he’s shown that he’s durable, he’s shown cardio, and he never quits. Mendes has advantages in this fight, most noticeably his wrestling and pure physical gifts. Those advantages matter a lot as it often dictates him as the round winner, but there isn’t much of a spread in other attributes. Lamas is competent and he’s very dangerous on the ground.

This is an interesting one to bet because there are many things to consider. First, I want to mention props aren’t out yet. Second, while Lamas can make this competitive, Mendes’s ability to dictate where this takes place is a huge factor here. Looking at the only prop out now which is the over/under 3.5 rounds at close to even, I’m thinking that the best value will probably be “Not Mendes ITD”. With Mendes being favored so high and the fight being finished likely be favored, I’m guessing there will be decent + odds on Mendes finishing here. Lamas has shown how hard he is to put away, and Mendes has expressed how dangerous Lamas can be. I think he’ll look for a more conservative gameplan here where his most likely route to victory is decision. The other odds that I’d consider is the point handicap prop on Lamas.

UFC Fight Night 62 Betting Tips & Predictions

UFC Fight Night 62 Betting Preview

Entertainment and betting wise there have definitely been better UFC cards than this one but there are still a few plays we like on this card.

Demian Maia vs Ryan Laflare

Maia initial run at WW looked awesome then it got a little shaky with 2 losses in a row but in my mind he’s still a very solid WW fighter. Ryan Laflare on the other hand is also a fighter I’ve had on my radar for a long time unfortunately the odds in this leaves much to be desired.

Ryan Laflare is around -150 to -160 now. When he was even money I would have recommended a bet but now with the extra juice I am not so sure. I favor Laflare in this matchup but by no means do I think anyone here should be a moderate favorite with available information we have.

Erick Silva vs Josh Koscheck

I’m going to begin by saying that the betting lines frustrates me to no end. I was hoping Erick Silva to be anything but a huge favorite. Unfortunately nobody is giving credit to Josh Koscheck and he’s sitting as a huge dog at +330 to +400 dog depending on which site you bet on. Given how bad Josh looked in his recent fights and that he’s old and worn makes me doubt in him a lot. 2 years ago I would say that’s would be the line of the century but now even a fighter like Erick Silva should be able to streamroll Josh pretty easily. I suspect Josh to go for the takedown, fail and get lit up on the feet. One thing that was particularly disturing with Josh’s recent performance was his lack of fighting instinct. It’s almost like he was done as soon as he failed with the takedown. I think retirement is waiting around the corner. If you haven’t figured by now I am recommending Silva or pass(but leaning towards pass).

One play I really like however is Over 1.5 rounds I am guessing most are expecting to Erick Silva to finish Josh right off the bat, I don’t doubt that Josh will be finished in this fight but I do think he will put up grinding fight in the first few minutes Before breaking and I think his chances of lasting more than 7.5 minutes are better than 50%. Right now the odds are +110 and I think that’s bettable.

Amanda Nunes vs Shayna Baszler

I think this fight will be an easy win for Nunes and for under -400 I actually see value in her betting odds. Sure she is a pretty big favorite but Shayna doesn’t have a clear path to victory. I think she is a solid fighter but Nunes is on a whole nother level.