UFN 63 Main Card Betting Tips

Al Iaquinta vs Jorge Masvidal

Unfortunately, this one is really hard for me to cap. My initial lean is Masvidal here. Masvidal has very underrated striking and he’s shown his all around game is there. We’ve seen him go back to his wrestling when necessary, but his bread and butter will always be his striking. The problem I have is that Masvidal has been making fights a bit too close for comfort. He’s rarely getting finishes, so betting on him is a sweat.As of right now, there isn’t a single play that really jumps out at me. I do think this fight is very likely to go to decision, so if forced to make a play, it would be the over 2.5 round. If Masvidal dips to + odds somehow, he would be the play.

Michael Chiesa vs. Mitch Clarke

I really liked the opening line on the under 2.5, and I still like it quite a bit at +115. Since 2011, Chiesa has gone over 2.5 rounds only once. Chiesa’s style makes it very clear why this happens. He is insanely aggressive and always going after the finish. He is one of those fighters that has really grown on me throughout his UFC tenure. I find it odd with Chiesa so favored to win that the under 2.5 is at + odds. It’s clear Chiesa’s best route to victory is always the finish, and this will be no exception. I’d pass on any other play is this is clearly the best option.

Juliana Pena vs. Milana Dudieva

I have to admit, this fight is really hard for me to cap and I’m getting gunshy at capping women’s MMA. In particular, I think it’s really hard to cap some of the fighters who came off of The Ultimate Fighter. I like the way Pena has looked with her aggression and tenacity, but as you can see in her record, she has suffered some losses not too far back. Dudieva is even harder for me to cap at this stage. I think this fight is a pass and one to watch more for future capping purposes, but my initial lean would be the inside the distance line at + odds. Both fighters like to go after the finish.

Clay Guida vs. Robbie Peralta

I really like Guida in this fight. Peralta has not faced anyone with a similar style to Guida yet, and I think he’ll have a hard time handling the wrestling. Peralta has got by being very tough and going after his opponents standing. He earns the respect from his opponents who get stuck fighting him from the outside and striking with him. Guida is not the type of fighter he will be stuck on the outside. He will be moving in and out and constantly going for takedowns. I also feel Guida can get some significant offense going as his top game will be a lot better than Peralta’s bottom game.If you look back at Guida’s record, this is the easiest fight he’s had in years. He’s had an extremely tough schedule, and this will be the type of matchup that can make him a fan favorite again. Often Guida is going up against guys who are probably more skilled than him in more areas, but not here. I like Guida here up to around -325 as I give Peralta only a puncher’s chance.

UFN 63: Chad Mendes vs Ricardo Lamas Betting Tips

Ultimate Fight Night 63 Betting Preview
Ultimate Fight Night 63 is one of those under the radar events that I really like from a betting perspective as well as an entertainment perspective. The main event is intriguing, and you also have several fights throughout the card that should be entertaining and have value. It also looks like a good mix of underdog and favorite bets.

Chad Mendes vs. Ricardo Lamas
I’ve always said one thing about the featherweight division and I’ll stick by it: I don’t favor anyone to beat Mendes besides Aldo. Despite that statement, I have to say that I’m surprised by the odds on this one. Ricardo Lamas is no joke. He has shown that he’s dangerous everywhere, he’s shown that he’s durable, he’s shown cardio, and he never quits. Mendes has advantages in this fight, most noticeably his wrestling and pure physical gifts. Those advantages matter a lot as it often dictates him as the round winner, but there isn’t much of a spread in other attributes. Lamas is competent and he’s very dangerous on the ground.

This is an interesting one to bet because there are many things to consider. First, I want to mention props aren’t out yet. Second, while Lamas can make this competitive, Mendes’s ability to dictate where this takes place is a huge factor here. Looking at the only prop out now which is the over/under 3.5 rounds at close to even, I’m thinking that the best value will probably be “Not Mendes ITD”. With Mendes being favored so high and the fight being finished likely be favored, I’m guessing there will be decent + odds on Mendes finishing here. Lamas has shown how hard he is to put away, and Mendes has expressed how dangerous Lamas can be. I think he’ll look for a more conservative gameplan here where his most likely route to victory is decision. The other odds that I’d consider is the point handicap prop on Lamas.

UFC Fight Night 62 Betting Tips & Predictions

UFC Fight Night 62 Betting Preview

Entertainment and betting wise there have definitely been better UFC cards than this one but there are still a few plays we like on this card.

Demian Maia vs Ryan Laflare

Maia initial run at WW looked awesome then it got a little shaky with 2 losses in a row but in my mind he’s still a very solid WW fighter. Ryan Laflare on the other hand is also a fighter I’ve had on my radar for a long time unfortunately the odds in this leaves much to be desired.

Ryan Laflare is around -150 to -160 now. When he was even money I would have recommended a bet but now with the extra juice I am not so sure. I favor Laflare in this matchup but by no means do I think anyone here should be a moderate favorite with available information we have.

Erick Silva vs Josh Koscheck

I’m going to begin by saying that the betting lines frustrates me to no end. I was hoping Erick Silva to be anything but a huge favorite. Unfortunately nobody is giving credit to Josh Koscheck and he’s sitting as a huge dog at +330 to +400 dog depending on which site you bet on. Given how bad Josh looked in his recent fights and that he’s old and worn makes me doubt in him a lot. 2 years ago I would say that’s would be the line of the century but now even a fighter like Erick Silva should be able to streamroll Josh pretty easily. I suspect Josh to go for the takedown, fail and get lit up on the feet. One thing that was particularly disturing with Josh’s recent performance was his lack of fighting instinct. It’s almost like he was done as soon as he failed with the takedown. I think retirement is waiting around the corner. If you haven’t figured by now I am recommending Silva or pass(but leaning towards pass).

One play I really like however is Over 1.5 rounds I am guessing most are expecting to Erick Silva to finish Josh right off the bat, I don’t doubt that Josh will be finished in this fight but I do think he will put up grinding fight in the first few minutes Before breaking and I think his chances of lasting more than 7.5 minutes are better than 50%. Right now the odds are +110 and I think that’s bettable.

Amanda Nunes vs Shayna Baszler

I think this fight will be an easy win for Nunes and for under -400 I actually see value in her betting odds. Sure she is a pretty big favorite but Shayna doesn’t have a clear path to victory. I think she is a solid fighter but Nunes is on a whole nother level.

NBA and Champions League Betting Tips – March 17th, 2015

Trying to keep our win streak going. We have performed well in pretty much all sports and leagues. Our UFC picks keep delivering and our soccer picks have been on point. Today there is a lack of high profile games but there are 3 gems out there that we can recommend bets on. We would also like to remind all our readers that are going to start publishing betting tips everyday 7 days a week. Our UFC picks are still being posted seperately and without a fixed schedule. You can read more about this in our about page.

Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies

Small value bet on Detroit Pistons. Over +140 straight is sligthly off. If I have to play the over/under I would recommend U184.5 for even money but I would keep it small.

Club Atletico De Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen

The theme of today is playing on underdogs. Keep in mind to keep the smalls as today can get swingy. Bayer Leverkusen for the very high price of almost 5.00 is definitely worth a look.  It’s reasonable to think they have atleast 25% chance of pulling of the upset and for those odds you can’t say no. Also,  Leverkusen actually did defeat Atletico a month ago.

Monaco AS vs Arsenal FC

I like a small play on draw here. The odds are sligthly skewed in Arsenal favor but I think Monaco AS has a pretty decent shot for playing to a draw here and at 3.45 I’m willing to gamble on it.

UFC 185 Prelims Betting Tips

Ross Pearson vs Sam Stout
I don’t think Pearson should be this favored over many veterans in the UFC. Sure, Pearson has solid tools and is well rounded, but I honestly don’t think he particularly excels in one area much more than Stout to make me think this fight will not be somewhat competitive. Pearson has definitely shown more power throughout his career, but let’s not act like he doesn’t have some defensive issues. One should never forget when Cole Miller put him down striking before finishing him. He also has had issues with fights becoming closer than expected. We saw this against Junior Assuncao, and although I think he did clearly beat Diego Sanchez, judges didn’t see it that way.

For me, this fight is either dog or pass. If looking for a prop, I’d go for the +3.5 on Stout. I think this fight is more likely to be a 29-28 across the board than a shutout or stoppage for Pearson.

Elias Theodorou vs. Roger Narvaez
While I don’t think Elias has all of the skills to be a contender yet, he possesses a quality that many fighters do not have – relentlessness. That relentlessness is also coupled with insane cardio. It’s a great combination to have as it brings a high activity level which looks great on judging, and you always have your opponent on the defensive. Those factors also bring out deficiencies in your opponent, particularly cardio issues and becoming mentally defeated. Cain Velasquez is a great example of a fighter who uses this as we saw against Dos Santos. If you fail for takedowns, keep spamming as it forces your opponent to defend. I think this will be the story in the Theodorou vs. Narvaez fight. Elias’s constant pressure will make Narvaez never be in the fight.

As for betting, Elias is extremely steep, but I don’t mind a play on him. If looking for a cheaper play, I like the -3.5. I just don’t think Narvaez will ever be in the game, and I wouldn’t doubt a late stoppage for Elias.

Beneil Dariush vs. Daron Cruickshank
I am having a ridiculously hard time capping this fight or finding a play. Dariush has been a really tough guy for me to cap, and Cruickshank is unpredictable. I have seen a lot of people like Dariush here, but Cruickshank is a completely different type of opponent for him to face. He will definitely be the best striker, and he’s also unpredictable and has wrestling to back up. I also think his speed could present problems. Despite all those positive factors, I’m not convinced that Dariush won’t pass the test and be able to deal with it. I’ll stop my rambling here and say that I have to bow out of this one. I can’t confidently cap it.

Josh Copeland vs. Jared Rosholt
As someone who has watched a lot of Rosholt’s fights now, I would not feel comfortable playing him here against a scrappy guy like Copeland and there is no way I’d cap Rosholt as high as his odds sit. For a quick reference, just watch his fight with Lewis. Rosholt had the speed advantage and clear wrestling edge. Lewis never gave up, kept getting back up, and eventually he caught Rosholt. I definitely think the same thing can happen here. Rosholts ground game can be pretty loose at times creating scrambles. This creates opportunities for Copeland to focus on standing up and exchanging. This fight is definitely dog or pass, and I think the right move is a small play on Copeland.

Ryan Benoit vs. Sergio Pettis
This is a fight that I was having trouble deciding against a pass or going with the underdog. There is no way I’d play Sergio straight at his inflated odds. Despite wanting to play Benoit, I don’t think it’s the right play here either. I’m looking at the “fight ends inside the distance” prop as having the most value. As we saw from Benoit in his first outing, he has a very exciting aggressive style. It’s also reckless, which I think is likely to be his downfall here. Benoit has been rewarded for his style by a huge bonus check, so I do not see this changing. I see Sergio finally getting to show his finishing ability here and I think Benoit’s chances are mainly limited to finishing. I think this fight being stopped inside the distance is probably more in the -200 range.