UFC on Fox 14 Betting Tips

UFC on Fox 14 Preview
It’s great that the UFC is putting on so many events, but one of the downfalls is that they can sneak up on you. We have a UFC on Fox event this Saturday in which we are getting a late start with the article. I do think there are some betting opportunities here, but it’s not an event I would call a big moneymaker. Regardless, the fights should be entertaining and good to have action on. We are going to keep these breakdowns a bit shorter than normal due to the event being in a couple days.

Alexander Gustafsson vs. Anthony Johnson
This is a great fight, but a tough one to bet. Rumble Johnson has looked great as of late, but Gustafsson is going to be a challenge for him. My initial thought was that Gustafsson via sub would probably be steep odds and a somewhat likely outcome. Johnson has shown issues when he gives up his back and Gustafsson will take it if the opportunity presents itself. Unfortunately, others may have the same idea as the odds are +250 when I expected them to be much higher. When Gustafsson was below -200, I think he was the definite play. Johnson’s odds will become tempting above +250. The play that I like most and think is fairly safe is that the fight ends inside the distance. I have a hard time seeing these guys go back and forth for 25 minutes.

Dan Henderson vs. Gegard Mousasi
I really hate some of the matchmaking that Henderson gets. He’s a great guy to bet on in fights that will be barnburners where his opponent goes toe to toe with him. Unfortunately, he gets fights such as Machida, Evans, and Cormier. This is not to say that these guys don’t come to fight, but the fights end up either being duds or not competitive at all. This is what I think will happen with Mousasi. I think he either cruises here outstriking and using his speed, or he outclasses Hendo before finishing. Either way, it’s hard to imagine Hendo finding a way to land his big bomb and I see him ending up frustrated. Mousasi’s line is expensive, but I don’t necessarily think it’s off. A more appealing line will probably be his -3.5 line as I really don’t see him dropping a round here and he has a good chance to finish.

Phil Davis vs. Ryan Bader
This is an interesting one to cap. On paper, Bader seems like he could be a tough matchup for Davis given his credentials. Regardless, Davis is sitting as a comfortable favorite. The reason for this in my eyes is Davis’s speed and volume. Davis has shown that he is not easy to headhunt or finish, and Bader has shown himself to not put combinations together great and look for the big haymaker finish. He also uses his wrestling to excel, but that’s going to be tough against Davis who I think is a better grappler overall. This is a tough fight for me to bet at the moment, but I do think the fight goes to decision fairly often.

Akira Corassani vs. Sam Sicilia
I have seen a lot of people say Sicilia is a “can”, but I’ll say that I do not think highly of Corassani either. He had a good performance against Peralta, but otherwise, he hasn’t shown much. For me, this is a dog or pass fight. Akira can definitely look to stay on the outside landing here and there, but Sicilia’s shots will be much more powerful and he can likely swarm Akira.

Albert Tumenov vs. Nico Musoke
Tumenov is my favorite play for this card so far. It’s hard to not be impressed with Tumenov after his last two outings. I don’t necessarily think he’s a top contender yet and I did bet Alcantara against him, but I think he presents a really tough matchup for a guy like Musoke. The key to beating Tumenov is to use a grinding style and be very patient with it. Alcantara use his size and top game to grind out the decision. Musoke can definitely grapple and slow down the game, but he’s a bit too loose in there mixing it up. I think this will ultimately be his demise as he’ll stand too much. Also, I’m not sure if he can easily hold down Tumenov.

I have to cap Tumenov here more around -200. His striking looked very sharp last time out and Musoke has shown to be hittable. I think we’ll start to see Tumenov’s odds being steep after this fight.

Kenny Robertson vs. Sultan Aliev
Kenny Robertson has looked absolutely great in his last two fights. He made very short work of Perpetuo with the odds close to even. He then absolutely outclassed Alcantara with odds close to even. At this point, I think it’s clear that the public undervalues Robertson. It’s tough to say how Aliev will deal with Robertson as Aliev hasn’t faced similar competition, but it’s safe to say that most fighters will have trouble if Robertson ends up on top. I think Aliev has a clear edge here standing, but overall, Robertson has the better experience edge, grappling edge, durability edge, and the edge in tenacity. I feel Robertson is the play here, but keeping it small would be wise as neither have faced similar competition.

Andy Ogle vs. Makwan Amirkhani
There aren’t many times when I would bet on Andy Ogle as a favorite, but this may be one of those exceptions. Amirkhani has such a low activity level and is a fighter that does best when he finishes, but he’s going against a guy that’s very hard to finish who has shown heart and cardio. On the surface, this just seems like a bad matchup for Amirkhani. I look for him to possibly excel early but Ogle to take over. Ogle up to -175 seems fair. I would cap it higher, but Ogle has shown a lot more neutralizing skills than offense.

Nikita Krylov vs. Stainslav Nedkov
Nedkov may be one of the better plays on this card at +120. Krylov has shown some major holes in his game throughout his UFC fights. He does not have much cardio, he makes rookie mistakes on the ground, and he is hittable. Nedkov is no world beater himself, but he’s proven himself to be tough and aggressive. Some point to Krylov’s traditional martial arts striking background, but I just don’t see him successfully avoiding a firefight with Nedkov. I also think Nedkov can get in on his legs for takedowns and brutalize him on the ground. I actually cap Nedkov as the favorite here, and more in the -150 range.

Anthony Christodoulou vs. Mairbek Taisumov
This is a squash match. Taisumov should have an easy time here, and I’m not surprised to see his odds get way up there. I am fairly surprised to see Taisumov inside the distance at only even odds. I think he should handle this fight easily, and he finishes more often than not. If you want to make a play on this, play the inside the distance line as Taisumov’s inside the distance line is almost similar.

Viktor Pesta vs. Konstantin Erokhin
Dog or pass here. Pesta did not look bad in his debut. Erokhin has ran through most of his opponents and he has faced credible competition. Regardless, I question how he will look if Pesta is game. If Pesta can keep him at bay and gas out Erokhin, we have a fight here. I would also factor in the heavyweight factor. It’s always dangerous betting heavy favorites at heavyweight.

Mirsad Bektic vs Paul Redmond
Bektic’s early line had value, but I would not play him now. Furthermore, he’s a tough guy to pick if he’ll finish or not. Redmond is on very short notice and he just missed weight, so I think there is a good chance he looks for a way out. If anything, the -3.5 line would be safest.

Neil Seery vs. Chris Beal
I contemplated this one for a long time, and I’m still having a tough time with it. I’m leaning towards a small straight play on Seery at around +185. Beal is going to be huge at flyweight, but it could have been a tough cut. On top of that, I don’t necessarily think Beal getting down so low is to his advantage. He’s the type of fighter where speed has been an advantage, and that advantage is less in a smaller, faster division. I think Seery can make this very competitive throughout due to his striking, volume, and tenacity. I’m not sure if Beal can hold Seery down easily.

UFN 59 Prelims Betting Tips

Cathal Pendred vs. Sean Spencer
Compared to some of the comments I’ve seen, I’m surprised the odds are where they are at. I have seen some people say Spencer is “free money” and that this is an easy win for him, yet his odds haven’t ever spiked above -175. Many look at Cathal’s fights and think he has not shown any skills in the octagon. My opinion is that he hasn’t looked near as good as he was hyped, but he hasn’t exactly looked like he doesn’t belong. He has came out ahead in both fights, and he has a knack for keeping it competitive. Prior to the UFC, he did beat Musoke and Mills which are solid wins. The main factor here is that Spencer doesn’t exactly blow fighters out of the water either. He excelled the most against Thiago and Drew Dober who are both very slow fighters. He barely beat Villefort and before that he lost to Natal.

I don’t see any reason this fight isn’t close. Given the comments that I’ve seen, I think we’ll definitely see Pendred get up above +150. If you see that, he’s the play or pass on the fight.

John Howard vs. Lorenz Larkin
The battle of two unreliable fighters. Larkin seemed like he had the ability to make some waves in the UFC, yet he’s coming off a three fight skid. Howard came out as a great underdog to bet on against Hall and Siyar, yet then he dropped the next two. The common theme with both is that they have the skill level, but something can be lacking. With Larkin, he sometimes just can’t put it together. With Howard, he can be very passive and lack fight IQ. In my opinion, Larkin’s shortcomings aren’t as bad as Howard’s. It’s very frustrating watching a fighter like Howard and it’s an awful feeling betting on him.

This may be a fight that’s best to pass on. When Larkin was around -115, I think he was the play. Where odds sit now, I’d just pass. If you need action on it, the decision line seems like it would be fairly safe.

Chris Wade vs. Zhang Lipeng
I have a really hard time seeing Wade lose this one. He has a major edge in wrestling and grappling, and he wins in the strength, speed, and stamina department. He should be able to dictate where this fight goes and he should absolutely wear on Lipeng. His line is expensive at -450, but I don’t necessarily think it is off. His -3.5 line may be something to keep an eye out for.

Patrick Holohan vs. Shane Howell
I’m going to keep this one really brief because I don’t see a play here. I believe this should be an easy match for Holohan, but he has proven himself to be unreliable. The line is a bit too expensive to invest in someone like him.

Frankie Perez vs. Johnny Case
This was an interesting one to try to cap, and I still don’t feel confident with it. Due to Case’s last win, I think he is being overvalued here. Couple that with the fact that Perez is making his debut, I think we have a bit of value on Perez. Perez has only one loss on his record, and that is a split decision loss to Chris Wade. As mentioned earlier, I think Wade is a solid prospect. If you watch Perez, he does not show a deficiency anywhere. He’s competent striking, he can deal with wrestlers, he’s got a good ground game, he seems fairly athletic, etc. I’m not sure where Case would excel by much over him. At worst, I think Perez makes this a close fight and is worth the stab at moderate + odds.

Charles Rosa vs. Sean Soriano
Despite Soriano’s losses, I think he has shown a lot of potential. He has had pretty vicious matchmaking. It’s clear that he’s still learning how to deal with wrestlers and grapplers, but I think he showed some major improvement against Skelly. Avoiding a submission from Skelly is something a lot of young fighters can’t do. On the flip side, I think a lot of people are overvaluing Rosa because he looked decent against Siver. These are the same people that also say Siver is a walkover for McGregor, so I’m a bit puzzled why so much value is put into Rosa keeping it somewhat competitive against Siver. I actually favor Soriano here as I think he’s better everywhere besides on the ground. I think his takedown defense will be on par with Rosa’s wrestling as well. Soriano is one of my favorite plays for this card at + odds.

Matt VanBuren vs Sean O’Connell
I’m not one to fighter bash, but I honestly think VanBuren is not UFC level at all. I think he got fairly lucky to make it to the finals of The Ultimate Fighter. He may have some success against guys who try to take him to decision, but I think he is very hittable and someone you can put away. O’Connell is not exactly a world beater himself, but I think he’s a guy who can take VanBuren’s head off. O’Connell via (T)Ko is the only play I’d make here at + odds but I’d keep it small since O’Connell isn’t very proven himself.

Joby Sanchez vs Tateki Matsuda
This has been an interesting one to watch the odds on. Matsuda impressed me despite his loss in his debut. He showed to be very scrappy and durable. He seemed competent in all areas and the type of fighter who is tough to outclass. Sanchez is coming in on a lot of hype, but I think Matsuda is a tough matchup for him. Matsuda points handicap at -170 seems pretty safe, but I also see value on his straight line.

 

UFN 59 Main Card Betting Tips

Ultimate Fight Night 59 Preview
Ultimate Fight Night 59 is a nice Sunday offering for a free card. The main event has the return of McGregor, but I think the real highlight of the event is Cerrone vs. Henderson. The card does have depth with most fighters being UFC veterans. It’s also a decent mix of close odds and heavier faves. There are definitely some bets to make here.
Conor McGregor vs. Dennis Siver
Unfortunately, I think the main event is one of the least interesting fights on the card. Siver does not have much to offer McGregor, but he may be the first guy that Conor has fought since Holloway who does not try to blitz him. McGregor has a knack for getting fighters angry at him and to go in for the kill. Holloway was the one exception, and he drug that out to decision. The reason that I think this is important is because “Not McGregor in Round 1″ is close to even odds now, but it’s been as high as +140. A fighter winning in Round 1 at favorite odds is very rare. The only fighter that I can think of off of the top of my head that gets those odds is Ronda Rousey. Most big faves are never expected to win in the first, and I think the public is overestimating McGregor here. Keep an eye on that line as it’s the play to make. Siver fights on the outside often and this fight being five rounds is a factor. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the first round being more of a feeling out process.
Donald Cerrone vs. Benson Henderson
I normally don’t like fighters facing off three times, but this one is an exception. The first fight was one of my favorite WEC fights. Benson was in danger constantly, but he always found a way out. The second fight seemed to be a major letdown as Cerrone submitted without much of a fight. My guess is that this third fight will be awesome. I really wish it was five rounds, but we’ll take what we can get. Currently, Cerrone is sitting at +130. If this was not a short notice fight, I would absolutely play that line. Cerrone has shown a lot of improvements in my eyes, especially with the deadliness of his striking. His knees up the middle seem to be on point, his leg kicks look better than ever, and he’s setting up head kicks great. His ground game always looks sharp, but I think it’s looked better than ever since he subbed Dunham.The problem here is that Cerrone has a quick turnaround resulting in two weight cuts in a fairly short period of time. Bendo’s style to win this will be to make it a grueling fight and to push the pace, and Cerrone coming in on short notice could become a big factor here if he fatigues easier. Regardless, I don’t see Bendo dominating the first round or second, so it’s still up in the air. I’m having trouble capping this one but I feel the current line is not far off. I’m keeping an eye on it for a spike of Cerrone to +150, or possibly Bendo becoming an underdog.

Uriah Hall vs. Louis Taylor
Louis Taylor is not on Uriah’s level, but Uriah can be extremely unreliable. I’m not going to write much on this because it’s going to be a pass. If Hall used all of his skills with fight IQ, this line is justified. Given his passivity and ability to throw the fight away, it’s tough to argue a play on him. It’s also extremely tough to play props with him because you never know how passive he’ll look in there.

UFC 182 Prelims Betting Tips & Predictions

Danny Castillo vs. Paul Felder
Along with Garbrandt/Brimage, this is one of the harder fights to cap. I will say that I’m convinced that I would not bet Castillo straight here. Felder looks like he could be a very game opponent. With that said, I think Castillo’s experience will reign supreme here for a somewhat close decision. In Castillo’s last eight fights, he has gone over 2.5 rounds six times. In Felder’s last five fights, he’s gone over 2.5 rounds three times. I’m a bit puzzled as to why we have the line for over 2.5 rounds sitting below -200. To me, this is a big test for Felder’s wrestling. I think we’ll see takedowns, Felder fighting to get back up, cage work, short periods of standup, and repeat for a decision. Over 2.5 is the play here.

Cory Garbrandt vs. Marcus Brimage
This is a fight that is tough to write on. I think a lot of people who know of Garbrandt see his potential, but the big question mark is if Brimage is too much too soon. Garbrandt is a team Alpha Male fighter who likely has a promising future. He has a solid wrestling background and he has shown his standup skills. The problem is that Brimage is a big step up in competition. I think I have to go ahead and give him the benefit of the doubt due to his training partners that he may be able to handle a step up in competition due to the gym wars he’s likely been in. If he was coming in from a smaller camp, I’d definitely pass here.

Garbrandt should have the tools to give Brimage trouble, but as mentioned, it’s a leap of faith given we haven’t got to see it on a big stage. I’m eyeballing the line here as I can see it getting closer to +200. It’s Garbrandt or pass here, but keep it small.

Jared Cannonier vs. Shawn Jordan
This is a horrible fight to bet with confidence on. Jordan has potential, but he also has proven to make mistakes. His chin is questionable, and he’s often over confident. Those two things don’t mix well at heavyweight. On paper, his skillset is there though. Cannonier has not faced good competition, and Jordan should be able to exploit that and walk through him.

I think this is a fight to pass on, but if you are a punter, I do have an interesting play here at very deep odds. Jordan has fallen twice recently to KOs. His ground game is really not bad, and he used to use it a lot more. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if his camp wants him to get back to getting the fight to the mat. Jordan via sub all the way up at +1260 may be worth a sprinkle. He used this strategy against Lavar Johnson in Strikeforce and submitted him. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him start to get back to fighting on the ground more.

Evan Dunham vs. Rodrigo Damm
I’m never crazy for big favs low on the card, but I have a hard time seeing Damm finding a way to victory over Dunham. I feel Dunham excels over him in every area, and Damm really doesn’t have the finishing ability for a fluke win here. Dunham’s workrate and output is also up there while Damm’s is very low. I actually think the straight line may still have value and the -3.5 probably does as well.

Mats Nilsson vs. Omari Akhmedov
I was very underwhelmed with Nilsson’s performance against Barnatt. That said, I did notice something about him that I think bettor’s can take advantage of. I will be very surprised if he’s the type of fighter who goes to many decisions in the UFC. He does not look like he likes being hit, and we know he’s a guy that likes to go for submission. He fights another finisher in Ahkmedov. My theory is that I’d be surprised if this somehow goes to decision, yet the inside the distance line is only -205 right now. I think that’s a definite play here, and much easier than trying to cap a winner.

Alexis Dufresne vs. Marion Reneau
I think if the decision would have gone the other way in Dufresne vs. Moras, the odds would be a lot different here. Dufresne did not look bad against Moras, but she did lack a bit of fight IQ. I think she’s so much better overall than Reneau that even bad fight IQ can be overcome in most instances. I look for Dufresne to bully and show a much better ground game than Reneau. On the feet, I don’t necessarily think she is worse either. I think she’ll also excel in the clinch. Women fighters can be flaky, but I still think you can be fairly confident in a medium play on Dufresne here.

UFC 182 Main Card Betting Tips & Predictions

Donald Cerrone vs. Myles Jury
Line movement has been the killer of value on this one. If you were lucky enough to get Cerrone at -165 or under, it was a great play. I was shocked to see Cerrone as low as -135, but it has not lasted long. His line has held steady above -200 for a while now, and I don’t see that changing. Jury has been getting a lot of hype lately, but Cerrone is an awful matchup for him. I have a hard time seeing Jury having a very clear path to victory. That’s not to say he can’t win, but I think it would be in a very close fight if he does. Cerrone is a potent finisher and he’s dangerous everywhere. Jury is competent everywhere, but I don’t think he has a strong enough top game to comfortably grind Cerrone down.I actually cap Cerrone closer to -250, but it’s hard to place that bet knowing he was once at -135. Keep an eye open here for the -3.5 line. I think Cerrone has a good chance of getting the finish here or looking dominant.
Brad Tavares vs. Nate Marquardt
I was very surprised to see the line on the over being set at 1.5 rounds rather than 2.5 rounds. Even more surprising is that it’s under -200. Tavares has shown himself to be a guy to stay away from being hurt and not be a finisher himself. Marquardt has been on the other side of the spectrum lately, but keep in mind that was going against guys who typically finish or get finished. I think this fight is very likely to go to decision and be fairly close. Furthermore, if a finish does occur, there is a good chance it doesn’t happen early.The play here is clearly the over 1.5 in my eyes. I cap it closer to -225 up to -250. Who will win this fight? I have no idea, but I’d be shocked if it isn’t close.

Hector Lombard vs. Josh Burkman
As far as straight lines go, this fight is a pass. I definitely feel Burkman will have a tough time with Lombard. Lombard can let rounds slip by being inactive against counter punchers, but that won’t be the case here. Burkman is an aggressive fighter, and this plays into Lombard’s style. The best line on this one is fight ends inside the distance at under -200. Burkman hasn’t seen the cards since 2012 and that was against a decision machine in Gerald Harris. I expect him to fight with a kill or be killed style, and I think he’ll be on the receiving end of a KO.
Louis Gaudinot vs. Kyoji Horiguchi
This is another one with lopsided odds, and I expect a lopsided fight. When Gaudinot is outclassed, it shows. We saw him get absolutely mauled by Bedford, however, some can say that was the weight difference. That cannot be an excuse with the beating he took against Elliott. I expect we’ll see another one here with Horiguchi who is better in every area. This is a dangerous one to bet on props as well since Gaudinot can take a beating. I actually think Horiguchi is a safe bet here as I see him losing a very small percentage of the time, but it’s expensive. Regardless, I’d play that before guessing on any props.

UFC 182: Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier Betting Tips & Predictions

UFC 182 Preview
I have always been one to say that a main event does not sell a pay per view for me. Often you’ll find champs as heavy favorites in the main event which doesn’t bring much selling power to me. This event would definitely be the exception. I think the price of the PPV is worth it to see the intriguing matchup of Jones vs. Cormier. I think it’s a very interesting fight from both an entertainment and betting perspective. On top of that, we get Cerrone/Jury and Tavares/Marquardt which should be good. I honestly don’t think the card has that much depth besides those mentioned, but I don’t think it’s needed with the solid main event.

Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier
This is such an intriguing fight that I’ve seen many theories on what people think will happen. Some people think Jones will handle Cormier with his submission. Some think Cormier will ragdoll Jones. Some think Jones will fight from the outside to beat Cormier. Some think Cormier will press Jones up against the cage for most of the fight. The toughest thing about predicting this fight is that a good argument can be made that neither fighter has faced a comparable fighter. That’s an interesting statement considering both have fought top competition, but I really believe it’s true.

My theory on this fight lies within something I find very interesting about Cormier – he hasn’t lost a round. Cormier has looked in absolute control of almost every minute of every fight that he has been in. If he knows he can win with takedowns, he’ll go for takedowns. If he knows he can win against the fence, he has no problem keeping it there. If he knows he has a speed advantage standing, he fights there. One thing that Jones does that always bugs me is that he sometimes gets in a zone where it looks like he’s sparring or trying out something new. He was trying out a step into side elbow when Gus got the takedown. I think Jones is so used to fighting guys that he outclasses that it can bite him in the ass if he’s not careful. This almost happened against Gus.

This is a very hard fight to cap and it’s one I do with hesitancy, but I actually very slightly favor Cormier here. As long as he remains cautious and meticulous about avoiding Jones finishing ability, I have a hard time seeing him drop 3 of 5 rounds considering he hasn’t dropped a round yet. In my eyes, he’s the play here.

Premier League Betting Predictions December 21st, 2014

A quick betting writetup for the two epl games today. The holidays are here but we haven’t taken the day off yet.

Newcastle vs Sunderland

Newcastle has been looking sharper and sharper. Props to them for breaking Chelsea’s undefeated record. They didn’t so well against Arsenal in their last, losing the game with 1-4. Sunderland on the other hand hasn’t managed to win a single game in the last 5 and quite frankly their performance this season has been shameful. They haven’t actually lost that many games. Their season stats is 2-4-10. They are this season’s draw masters.

Enough stats talk, let’s talk about the game in question. Newcastle at home for 2.10 is a fair deal here and I recommend backing them. Newcastle is not going to run over Sunderland but I think they will win relatively comfortably here.

Liverpool vs Arsenal

Liverpool struggled big time against the improving United, they lost the game 0-3 and now they’re facing yet another top team. I’m leaning towards Arsenal here but unfortunately their dropped down to 2.54 I am not sure I want to back them for that price. This is a competitive match no doubt and Arsenal is the away team but I think their slight favorites and at 2.54 I am not sure you I can talk myself into betting that. I recommend skipping this one.

Premier League Betting Predictions – December 20th, 2014

United is getting closer to the number one spot but Chelsea is expected to win their upcoming game. A betting preview on premier league winning odds will be released during the week so remember to sign up to our mailing list to receive all updates. City is also a serious contender for the premier league title and lucky them they have an easy match this week.

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace

No surprise that City are heavily inflated favorites here, Crystal Palace is paying between 11-13 times the money depending on sportsbook. City has been playing like sharks and Palace like sheep. I think the odds are bit too inflated but I don’t suggest underdog chasing here, so I’ll pass and leave no recommendations for this game.

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

What’s up with United? Well, they’re getting their act together as we expected. They are on a roll now and closing in on the premier league title. They have gone a whopping 6-1 in their last 7. Aston Villa and United are a whopping 0-5 for United’s favor. With those head to head stats, it’s easy to Think that betting on United is a good idea. Usually these spots are usually hard to find value since many gamblers to over inflate the bigger team’s chances but in this case I think United has a fair price and worth a bet.

Bet on Manchester United at 1.57 @ Bet365

Hull vs Swansea

I’ll keep this one super short, Hull is worthy of a bet here at 2.90. This game is close but I actually sligthly favor Hull here not sure why the odds are priced this way. Might be hard for some to pull the trigger since Hull haven’t even manged to win one game in the last 7.

Bet on Hull at 2.90 @ Bet365

QPR vs West Brom

It’s hard to get a sense of how good these teams match up with eachother but I will say the data we have and recent performance the odds seems to be quite accurate. Therefore I will not give out a bet recommendation.

Southampton vs Everton

Keep fading Southampton. The team play and passing efficiency just haven’t been there this season. Luckily Everton are slight dogs and that’s probably because of the home advantage for Southampton. 3.30 is a great price and I feel this is the underdog bet of the week. For the curious stat geek, Southampton has lost 5 out of the last 7 and Everton 3 out of the last 7.

Bet on Everton at 3.30 @ Bet365

Tottenham vs Burnley

Skipping this one because of the juice, I like Tottenham here and expect them to win but I am not biting for 1.50 and I suggest the readers to look elsewhere. It’s always difficult to put much faith into Tottenham.

West Ham vs Leicester

It’s either dog or pass here. Leicester is paying 5.50 and their chances are slim no doubt but playing West Ham for that much juice is outrageous in my opinion. The performance hasn’t been there for Leicester but the betting market is overreacting here.

Bet small on Leicester at 5.50 @ Bet365

NBA Betting Predictions – December 16th, 2014

Hopefully we can continue or streak of hitting our NBA plays. We took a short break from writing NBA tips because of staff and time issues but we’re back in business again. Today we only got 2 games and there are few opportunities here.

Also don’t forget that we’re starting our parlays of the week and betting preview updates for the season(not just NBA) every week. There is a lot of demand from readers wanting updates on superbowl winner odds, nba playoffs, premier league winner and so on. Keep your eyes out on those or just sign up to our mailing list and you will get all updates sent straight to your inbox.

Washington Wizards vs Minnesota Timberwolves

First off, I want to say I’ve been very impressed with Wizards this season so far and they have definitely performed better than what most people expected. That said, I Think people are giving pushing the odds a bit too much. Everyone expects Wizards to blow Timberwoles out of the water here and so do I but I don’t Believe they cover their spread more than 50% of the times. Timberwolves is at a whopping +11.5 spread at +110 odds. Nothing stands in the prop section so no comment on prop plays.

Picks: Bet Timberwolves +11.5

NY Knicks vs Dallas Mavericks

My suggestion is to bet the Knicks straight or skip this one. They are solid dogs at +260. Their performance have been subpar but it’s a less extreme case of wizards – timberwolves, the favorite is getting too much credit in the betting market.

Picks: Bet NY Knicks at +260

La Liga Betting Predictions – December 20th, 2014

Since the launch of this website which was pretty recently, we’ve had a hectic run. Hitting some big underdogs and also a few weeks where we missed a lot but overall we’ve been crushing the sportsbooks and especially done well in La Liga. For December 20th we are not seeing any prop plays that stands out so we will give out just straight bet recommendations.

Barcelona vs Cordoba

Starting to sound like a broken record but the logical thing to do when a team has 23 times the money is to bet on it. Now you might point out the obvious huge skill gap between these two teams and I will point out there are few if any cases where two la liga faces eachother and you can put these kind of odds. We here at bettingpredictions.net recommended Celta Vigo when they had 16 times the money versus Barcelona and they managed to pull off the upset. We’re using the same reasoning again, huge dog but the odds are so high so even being just a tiny bit competitive make it a no brainer to bet Cordoba.

Levante vs Real Sociedad

I was hoping for decent draw odds here but man I have to admit the sportsbooks priced this one pretty good. The draw odds are “only” 3.10. I’m guessing that draw is far more likely outcome than people expect in this matchup. In my opinion take a chance with Levante or draw, preferrably draw.

Eibar vs Valencia

These last 2 months we have been giving out lots of underdog recommendations and we have been doing great so far and the theme of this betting writeup so far has only been underdog plays. Eibar is one of the better bets for the day, at 3.80 times the money and homefield advantage I feel you have to gamble on them.

Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol

Vallecano got served bad in their last outing with Valencia their performance simply hasn’t been there. I wrote earlier that Vallecano is the black sheep this season, fundamentally good team that excel in passing rate and arieals won(two variables that correlates strongly with performance) yet they still can’t pull together a win streak worth mentioning or even win games for that matter. They have lost their 3 recent games and gone 3-4 in their last 7. They are not the worst team and they’re facing Espanyol that is not top of the ladder team but decent. I think given the fact Vallecano has home advantage and they are decent team I think they’re worth backing herere for 2.20 times the money.